M&A Trends in 2026: First-Half Review Globally and in Spain

The M&A market has entered a new phase in 2026. Buyers are no longer waiting for geopolitical uncertainty to clear, interest rates to fully stabilize, or valuation gaps to close before taking action again. Volatility persists, but it is no longer a sufficient reason to stall strategic decisions.

This transition from caution to action does not, however, signal a uniform recovery. Global deal value is rising sharply driven by a select group of mega-transactions, while total deal count continues to decline and a significant portion of the middle market remains constrained by financing costs, buyer selectivity, and valuation gaps between sellers and investors.

The result is a K-shaped M&A market: on the upper arm are large corporations and well-capitalized buyers positioned to execute transformative deals; on the lower arm are numerous smaller transactions that face greater hurdles or require flexible structures to reach completion.

This first-half review updates our previous report on 2026 M&A trends, analyzing key international dynamics and their specific impact on the Spanish market.

According to Ideals’ M&A Mid-Year Review 2026, transactions completed during the first half of the year averaged 253 days to reach closure—down 4% year-over-year and 20 days faster than in H2 2025

The shorter timelines do not mean that transactions have become simpler. In fact, deal teams logged an average of 237 hours in Virtual Data Rooms, up from 219 hours during the same period in 2025. Operational intensity thus increased by approximately 8%.

Executive summary: Key takeaways from the first half of 2026

Key indicators point to a market that is more active, faster-paced, and highly selective:

• Global deal value is positioned to reach approximately $4 trillion in 2026, up 13% from 2025.
• Transactions exceeding $5 billion now account for 48% of global M&A value, compared to 26% in 2024.
• Excluding these mega-transactions, global market value shows a 4% year-over-year decline.
• Processes completed using Ideals’ Virtual Data Rooms required an average of 253 days—the shortest timeline recorded since 2022.
• VDR work time increased by 8% to 237 hours per transaction, reflecting processes that are faster, but not simpler.
• In Spain, 1,485 announced or closed transactions were recorded, with an aggregate value of €50.47 billion.
• Spanish deal volume dropped by 15% year-over-year, while total capital deployed remained virtually flat, showing a slight decrease of just 0.29%.
• Artificial intelligence acts simultaneously as an investment sector and as a tool to accelerate analysis, due diligence, valuation, and transaction preparation.

Global M&A Overview: Faster Speeds Amid Higher Complexity

One of the most significant shifts in the first half of 2026 has been the acceleration of transaction timelines.

According to Ideals’ M&A Mid-Year Review 2026, transactions completed during the first half of the year averaged 253 days to reach closure—down 4% year-over-year and 20 days faster than in H2 2025

The shorter timelines do not mean that transactions have become simpler. In fact, deal teams logged an average of 237 hours in Virtual Data Rooms, up from 219 hours during the same period in 2025. Operational intensity thus increased by approximately 8%.

These figures reveal that teams are compressing more work into shorter timeframes. Early preparation, document organization, EBITDA normalization, contract reviews, and the early identification of contingencies are becoming increasingly critical to prevent transactions from stalling during the due diligence phase.

Investor appetite also remains strong. The number of new M&A data rooms opened on the iDeals platform increased by 23% year-on-year during the first half: 17% in the first quarter and 29% in the second. This serves as a leading indicator of new processes that could translate into higher deal activity in the coming months.

Western Europe outpaces North America in speed

Western Europe required an average of 248 days to complete transactions, compared to 250 days in North America. While the difference is small, it marks a reversal of the pattern observed previously and demonstrates that the European recovery has gained consistency.

Asia and Oceania exhibit more volatile behavior. Average transaction duration increased again to 331 days, although iDeals notes that its regional sample size is smaller and may be skewed by individual deals of exceptional complexity.

Sectoral disparities have also widened. Financial services recorded the fastest processes, averaging 223 days, whereas healthcare and biotechnology required 378 days. The technology sector also experienced extended timelines due to valuation revisions, regulatory risks, and uncertainty regarding the impact of artificial intelligence on certain business models.

The return of mega-deals transforms global figures

The most striking figure of 2026 is the growth in aggregate market value. Global transaction value could reach approximately $4 trillion by year-end, up 13% from 2025 and marking the best performance since 2021.

This figure must be interpreted with caution. It is an annual projection based on deals officially announced through May 31, 2026, and does not represent the volume completed during the first half of the year.

Furthermore, growth is highly concentrated:

• Deals exceeding $5 billion generate 48% of global value.
• In 2025, they represented 39%.
• In 2024, they accounted for just 26%.
• Without mega-deals, market value would have fallen by 4%.
• PwC projects around 42,000 transactions for the year as a whole, down 13% compared to 2025.

Therefore, the market is not growing because significantly more transactions are taking place, but rather because a limited number of deals are of extraordinary size.

Five transactions that illustrate the shift in scale

It is worth noting that deal value can refer to the purchase price paid, the enterprise value of the acquired company, or the combined post-transaction value. Consequently, these metrics are not always directly comparable.

SpaceX and xAI: Vertical Integration of Technology and Artificial Intelligence

SpaceX announced the acquisition of xAI in February 2026. The transaction assigned xAI an estimated valuation of $250 billion, bringing artificial intelligence, satellite connectivity, computing infrastructure, and space technology together under a single corporate structure.

More than a conventional acquisition, the transaction represents a bet on vertical integration. Its logic lies in combining data, AI models, communication networks, and launch capacity, creating a technology platform that is difficult to replicate through independent partnerships.

Paramount and Warner Bros. Discovery: Scale to Compete

The deal announced by Paramount to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery reached a value close to $111 billion.

The transaction responds to a structural reality of the media and entertainment sector: competing internationally in streaming requires substantial investment in content, technology, marketing, and distribution. The combination would bring together film studios, networks, franchises, digital platforms, and content libraries.

It also exemplifies the growing weight of regulatory risk. An announced deal of this scale should not be confused with a completed transaction, as its execution depends on the relevant regulatory approvals and the terms agreed upon between the parties.

NextEra Energy and Dominion Energy: Infrastructure Returns to the Center of M&A

NextEra Energy and Dominion Energy signed an all-stock merger agreement valued at approximately $67 billion.

The goal is to create one of the world’s largest regulated utility platforms at a time of surging power demand. Electrification, data centers, and the rollout of artificial intelligence infrastructure require new grids, expanded generation capacity, and reliable security of supply.

The expected timeline of 12 to 18 months demonstrates that, while standard processes are accelerating, large-scale regulated deals continue to require extensive sector-specific and antitrust clearances.

Devon Energy and Coterra Energy: Consolidation in the Permian Basin

The combination of Devon Energy and Coterra Energy, with an estimated combined enterprise value of approximately $58 billion, was completed on May 7, 2026.

The transaction created a major US shale producer with complementary assets, particularly in the Permian Basin. The strategic logic rests on cost reduction, capital optimization, drilling inventory expansion, and the generation of economies of scale.

McCormick and Unilever Foods: Portfolio Streamlining and Carve-Outs

The combination of McCormick and Unilever’s food business values Unilever Foods at $44.8 billion.

The transaction brings brands such as McCormick, Knorr, and Hellmann’s together under a company with combined revenue of approximately $20 billion. At the same time, it allows Unilever to focus on beauty, wellbeing, personal care, and home care.

The deal illustrates the rise of carve-outs and strategic separations: companies are reviewing their portfolios, spinning off businesses that require different operating models, and reallocating capital toward activities where they anticipate higher growth.

Artificial Intelligence in M&A: Investment Sector and Execution Tool

AI plays a dual role in today’s market.

On the one hand, it serves as an investment thesis. Capital is flowing toward foundational model developers, data centers, semiconductors, connectivity, power generation, power grids, cooling systems, engineering, and specialized components.

On the other hand, AI is modifying how deals are prepared and executed.

According to Ideals, 59% of survey respondents consider speed and efficiency improvements to be the primary benefit of applying artificial intelligence to M&A. Its applications include:

• Identifying and sorting target companies.
• Initial strategic fit analysis.
• Reviewing large volumes of documentation.
• Detecting contractual clauses and risks.
• Comparing financial scenarios.
• Valuation and modeling support.
• Preparing reports for investment committees.
• Post-closing value creation plan tracking.

Technology does not eliminate the need for professional judgment. Results must be reviewed, sources verified, and information confidentiality protected. AI can flag anomalies or accelerate an initial assessment, but it is no substitute for negotiation, judging leadership quality, or interpreting strategic risks.

Winners and Losers Within the Tech Ecosystem

AI-related investment does not benefit all technology companies equally.

Assets that enable its deployment—compute capacity, data centers, power, cooling systems, and connectivity—are attracting capital because they address easily identifiable structural demand.

In contrast, traditional software is being analyzed with greater caution. Buyers are evaluating whether artificial intelligence might lower barriers to entry, replace specific functionalities, or compress the value of services that previously justified high valuation multiples.

PwC notes that this reconsideration is also extending to IT services, professional services, insurance brokerage, and asset management. The question is no longer simply whether a company uses artificial intelligence, but whether its business model is protected against it.

The M&A Market in Spain During the First Half of 2026

The Spanish transactional market mirrors part of the global dynamic: fewer deals, but higher average values and a pronounced concentration of capital.

Spain recorded 1,485 announced or closed transactions during the first half, with an aggregate value of €50.474 billion.

Compared to the same period in 2025:

• The number of transactions fell by 15%.
• Capital deployed decreased by just 0.29%.
• The stability in total value, despite the drop in deal volume, confirms the increased weight of large-scale transactions.

Figures must be interpreted in accordance with TTR methodology. The transactional market includes corporate M&A, asset acquisitions, private equity, and venture capital, meaning not all recorded transactions correspond to a traditional corporate acquisition.

Un primer semestre a dos velocidades

The first quarter was particularly intense. Spain recorded 688 transactions valued at €36.219 billion. Deal volume fell by 18% year-over-year, but total capital deployed rose by 64%.

By comparing this figure with the half-year total, it can be estimated that the second quarter contributed approximately:

• 797 transactions.
• €14.255 billion (or €14.255 billion EUR).

This means transaction volume increased by around 16% compared to the first quarter, while total deal value dropped by nearly 61%.

There was, therefore, no market freeze in the second quarter. There was greater numerical activity, but featuring smaller deal sizes. The distinction is essential for understanding the Spanish market: deal flow continued, even as the impact of several large transactions that had exceptionally inflated first-quarter total value disappeared.

The lower mid-market and family-owned businesses define the Spanish ecosystem.

Unlike the high-profile international focus on mega-deals, a fundamental portion of Spanish transactional activity takes place in the lower mid-market.

The profile of the target company capturing a significant share of demand in Spain exhibits the following characteristics:

• Revenue between €500,000 and €10 million.
• EBITDA between €200,000 and €3 million.
• Recurring revenue and stable margins.
• Low founder dependency.
• Management team capable of ensuring business continuity.
• Profitable and going-concern business.

These ranges do not constitute an official or universal definition of the lower mid-market, but rather an indicative reference for the segment observed by the platform. However, they remain representative of a business landscape predominantly composed of SMEs and family-owned enterprises.

The most common buyers are industrial groups, family offices, search funds, and funds specializing in buy-and-build strategies. For them, a profitable SME can become a platform from which to integrate competitors, expand services, or consolidate a fragmented market.

Family-owned businesses as deal generators.

Deale estimates that around 43% of closed transactions in Spain involve a family-owned business as the sell-side party. This figure should not be attributed exclusively to the first half of 2026, but it helps explain a structural characteristic of the domestic market.

Generational succession is one of the primary catalysts. It is estimated that more than half a million Spanish business owners will reach retirement age before 2030, and many of them lack an identified successor.

Corporate & Financial Translation
The decision to sell a family business does not depend solely on price. It is also influenced by:

• Project continuity
• Job protection
• Brand retention
• The founder’s future role
• Relationships with clients and suppliers
• Preserving the family legacy

Therefore, these transactions often require solutions such as temporary retention periods for the entrepreneur, deferred payments, earn-outs, minority reinvestment, or specific continuity commitments.

Sectors, regions, and cross-border transactions in Spain.

The real estate sector led activity during the half-year with 343 transactions, although it recorded a year-on-year decline of 5%.

Internet, software, and IT services held second place with 144 transactions, also down 5% year-on-year. Valuation multiple revisions and uncertainty surrounding the impact of AI account for part of this moderation.

Business and professional services recorded 121 transactions and was one of the top-performing segments, growing by 15% year-on-year. Its fragmentation favors consolidation strategies across activities such as consulting, advisory, technical services, brokerages, or specialized B2B services.

A specialized regional map

Activity is unevenly distributed and reflects the productive specialization of each region:

• Madrid and Barcelona concentrate technology, financial services, healthcare, pharmaceuticals, and professional services.
• The Basque Country stands out in manufacturing, advanced manufacturing, engineering, and components.
• Valencia and Murcia present opportunities in agri-food, distribution, and logistics.
• Aragón and La Rioja maintain a relevant production fabric in food, wine, and supporting industries.
• Other regional hubs attract transactions linked to tourism, renewable energy, logistics, and business services.

Location alone does not determine a company’s attractiveness, but it does influence the availability of talent, the concentration of industrial buyers, and the possibilities for sectoral consolidation.

Growth of the cross-border dimension

The United States continues to be one of the main destinations for acquisitions carried out by Spanish companies, while France leads in the number of purchases of domestic companies made by foreign investors.

During the first quarter, Spanish outbound acquisitions totaled 102 transactions valued at €14,383 million. Inbound transactions by foreign investors targeting Spanish assets reached 204 deals amounting to €17,343 million.

Cross-border activity confirms Spain’s dual role: an attractive market for international buyers and a platform from which domestic companies can expand into Europe and the Americas.

The main challenges for buyers and sellers

The valuation gap

Some sellers continue to use as a benchmark the multiples achieved in 2021, when financing costs were lower and growth expectations were more optimistic.

Buyers now value assets using more conservative assumptions regarding growth, debt, inflation, and technology risk. This disconnect can stall a transaction even when strategic rationale is clear.

Earn-outs, deferred payments, roll-overs, and price adjustment mechanisms help distribute risk, but they are no substitute for a realistic valuation based on future cash generation capacity.

Private equity’s backlog

As of March 2026, private equity funds held 32,979 companies in their portfolios. 34% of these had been held for over five years.

This accumulation increases the pressure to sell assets, return capital to investors, and free up capacity for new investments. It could drive the market during the second half of the year, although it also forces funds to choose between selling under more moderate price expectations, extending holding periods, or turning to secondary transactions and continuation funds.

Financing and cost of capital

Financing availability has improved for high-quality assets, but cost remains a decisive factor. Businesses with recurring revenue, pricing power, and low capital expenditure requirements have easier access to debt financing.

Cyclical assets, those with high CAPEX requirements, or those exposed to technology disruption require more prudent structures and a higher equity contribution.

Greater regulatory scrutiny

Large-scale transactions must clear antitrust approvals, foreign direct investment screening, and sector-specific regulatory clearances. In key sectors such as energy, telecommunications, infrastructure, defense, data, and financial services, the regulatory strategy must be designed from the outset.

Regulatory risk affects the timeline, financing, contractual clauses, and the allocation of liabilities between buyer and seller. The larger the transaction, the more critical it is to anticipate potential remedies, divestitures, or conditions required to secure clearances.

Prospects for the second half of 2026

The second half starts from a growing pipeline of deals in preparation, but maintaining momentum will depend on the evolution of financing conditions, valuations, inflation, and the geopolitical landscape.

The key factors to monitor are:

1. Converting new deal pipelines into completed transactions. Here is the natural business translation for this statement:
2. Private equity divestitures. The need to return capital can increase sell-side activity, secondary transactions, and continuation vehicles (or continuation deals).
3. Lower mid-market consolidation. In Spain, opportunities will persist in fragmented sectors and family-owned businesses lacking generational succession.
4. Selecting AI-exposed assets. Buyers will distinguish between businesses benefiting from artificial intelligence infrastructure and business models vulnerable to substitution or disintermediation.
5. Closing the valuation gap. Transactions with flexible structures will be better positioned to move forward.
6. Regulatory scrutiny. Clearances will continue to dictate the deal timelines of transformational transactions.

Conclusion: An active, but far more discerning market.

The first half of 2026 confirms that M&A has shifted from waiting for market stability to learning how to operate within ongoing uncertainty.

The growth in global transaction value should not be interpreted as a broad-based recovery. Mega-deals elevate headline figures, while the remainder of the market remains selective and demands more rigorous deal preparation.

In Spain, this duality coexists with its own unique market dynamics: a vibrant lower mid-market, an extensive family-owned business ecosystem, and a growing imperative to execute consolidation strategies and generational transitions.

For buyers and sellers, the opportunity is there, but success will depend on coming to market with a clear strategic thesis, a defensible valuation, normalized financial information, fully prepared documentation, and a deal structure capable of appropriately allocating risk.

At Grafton Corporate, we assist business owners, corporate groups, and investors in preparing and executing M&A transactions, valuations, investor search, inorganic growth strategies, and international expansion.

Frequently Asked Questions Regarding M&A Trends in 2026

How is the global M&A market evolving in 2026?

Global transaction value is rising, driven by mega-deals, and could reach approximately $4 trillion. However, total deal count is declining, making the recovery uneven.

How many transactions were recorded in Spain during the first half?

The Spanish transactional market recorded 1,485 announced or closed deals, with an aggregate value of €50.474 billion.

Which sectors lead M&A activity in Spain?

Real Estate was the most active sector, followed by Internet, Software, and IT Services. Business and Professional Support stood out for its year-on-year growth.

How is artificial intelligence impacting M&A?

AI is driving investments in data centers, energy, networks, and connectivity. It is also being leveraged to accelerate target screening, due diligence, valuation, and investment committee preparation.

What role do family-owned businesses play?

Family-owned businesses generate a substantial portion of Spanish deal flow. Founders reaching retirement age, a lack of successors, and the need to ensure business continuity are driving numerous sell-side transactions and investor entry points.

What can be expected for the second half of 2026?

Deal activity is likely to continue, driven by new processes, private equity pressure to execute divestment, and lower mid-market consolidation. However, financing, valuations, and regulatory risk will remain determining factors.